Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Emma Raducanu vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc6a8a0bda8a938ae1d81cd8e8744ddd3702060222c3dbb49cc2868e346d98c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Raducanu, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Raducanu | 47c | 3,443$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.28 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Pegula | 53c | 3,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Pegula | 35c | 1,927$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.58 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raducanu | 67c | 1,781$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.27 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raducanu | 55c | 1,686$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.41 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Raducanu | 68c | 1,134$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.59 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Pegula | 49c | 1,060$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.2 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raducanu | 40c | 580$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Pegula | 23c | 521.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.08 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Raducanu | 59c | 508.57$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.88 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Pegula | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.57 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Pegula | 42c | 429.26$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pegula | 45c | 425.44$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.47 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Raducanu | 72c | 300.62$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Pegula | 39c | 279.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.62 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Pegula | 79c | 279.16$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Raducanu | 40c | 208.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Pegula | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Pegula | 30c | 167.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Raducanu | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Raducanu | 63c | 141.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pegula | 29c | 130$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Pegula | 45c | 88.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Pegula | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Raducanu | 41c | 50.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Raducanu | 64c | 42.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pegula | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…3eeebacked Pegula | 45c | 41.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Pegula | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Pegula | 60c | 31.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Raducanu | 61c | 30.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.