Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc9607f6dea3ac05a703f1f8e22cd206984ff3b751d7768dc77b37648653d17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Spirit Academy, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,263 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 695.38$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.89 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…81f2backed Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 520$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…0efcbacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 520$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…74a4backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…2de7backed Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 29c | 219.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 218.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 196.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 194$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spirit Academy | 39c | 116.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Spirit Academy | 21c | 83.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group BNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.