Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e14095c400c0e0a6ee75510f19052ab92056a2259e27f0595a05a88759d7a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 1,410$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.11 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…54bbbacked Yes | 60c | 1,129$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 73c | 1,001$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.84 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 33c | 892.59$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.16 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 659$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.36 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 41c | 504.78$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.56 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 21c | 222$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 36c | 209.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 47c | 190$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked No | 12c | 134$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.68per pick | 12cpaid | +851%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 56c | 68.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb660…15d4backed Yes | 34c | 59.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 73c | 23.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Ladies First" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.