College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-21.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ebbbfc523169ad1e1f6f090cbe3dcc59466557b4ed2dace88490dbccf032849
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCLAof USC, UCLA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UCLA | 52c | 13,248$6,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,359.54 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked USC | 48c | 9,290$4,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,459.39 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked USC | 47c | 7,484$3,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,553.81 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed UCLA | 51c | 7,445$3,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,668.98 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed USC | 50c | 5,648$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed USC | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed UCLA | 50c | 4,450$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.23 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UCLA | 53c | 2,554$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.38 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…0ab5backed USC | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed USC | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked UCLA | 52c | 300$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed USC | 47c | 195$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked UCLA | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed USC | 52c | 88.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed USC | 48c | 85.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked UCLA | 52c | 46.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed USC | 49c | 36.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-21.5)this page
- Spread: USC (-20.5)UCLA won
- Spread: USC (-22.5)UCLA won
- UCLA vs. USCUSC won
- UCLA vs. USC: O/U 58.5Under won
- UCLA vs. USC: O/U 60.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.