UCLA vs. USC

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ca6fc47acb329451782eb0afb4512dad95a6a9912f9eafdc60a052fa3c61a9

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: USCof UCLA, USC
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $221,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $222,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,775 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4259…936fbacked UCLA	44c	59,057$25,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,754.84	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+5.1wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked USC	59c	42,679$25,315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,363.47	628	43.6%274 W · 354 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed UCLA	13c	39,717$5,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,359.84	162	34%55 W · 107 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed UCLA	6c	25,858$1,551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,551.48	262	44.3%116 W · 146 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked UCLA	17c	22,856$3,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,900.15	684	40.8%279 W · 405 L	-10.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked USC	66c	19,233$12,738 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,494.19	588	50.2%295 W · 293 L	+23.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed UCLA	7c	12,649$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.53	935	48.4%453 W · 482 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked UCLA	7c	10,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed USC	58c	8,555$4,986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,569.69	198	42.9%85 W · 113 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2c…d1b3backed UCLA	7c	4,557$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked UCLA	7c	2,486$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.11	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed UCLA	10c	1,949$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	134	44%59 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a4…75c1backed USC	67c	1,619$1,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$532.89	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf5…6638backed UCLA	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed UCLA	7c	1,306$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.22	659	45.2%298 W · 361 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked UCLA	8c	1,200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	471	31.4%148 W · 323 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed UCLA	8c	1,200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed UCLA	7c	1,077$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.64	256	29.3%75 W · 181 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed UCLA	15c	1,050$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.93	648	41.2%267 W · 381 L	+12.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed USC	69c	1,038$715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.86	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-4.4wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed UCLA	7c	1,017$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.03	76	42.1%32 W · 44 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…466fbacked USC	76c	1,000$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.17	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed UCLA	7c	928.56$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	284	40.8%116 W · 168 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce1…565dbacked UCLA	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed USC	74c	698.87$514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.56	269	40.5%109 W · 160 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked USC	68c	629$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.35	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked UCLA	27c	591.2$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.86	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked UCLA	17c	584.76$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x247f…ff45backed UCLA	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994b…c047backed UCLA	32c	500$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed UCLA	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed UCLA	29c	500$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5885…82c9backed UCLA	24c	436.51$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed UCLA	10c	399.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63f9…d1b1backed UCLA	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	18cpaid	+81.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed UCLA	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe30e…4eedbacked UCLA	5c	291.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec0…6d2abacked UCLA	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5241…04cebacked UCLA	8c	259.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed UCLA	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	244	36.9%90 W · 154 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42f1…e5a1backed USC	67c	226.26$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.13	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked UCLA	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	422	44.5%188 W · 234 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked UCLA	7c	199.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	124	33.1%41 W · 83 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked UCLA	7c	160$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	258	19.8%51 W · 207 L	-10.0wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed UCLA	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	134	32.8%44 W · 90 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked UCLA	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	184	16.8%31 W · 153 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b0…28f6backed USC	75c	133.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	68cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed USC	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	398	47.7%190 W · 208 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e6…696bbacked UCLA	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b6b…12e7backed UCLA	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed USC	79c	106.48$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.37	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb4…f28cbacked UCLA	10c	103.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f44…bc79backed UCLA	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed UCLA	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	267	50.9%136 W · 131 L	+21.7wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked USC	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0edb…8260backed UCLA	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3214…63d6backed UCLA	28c	92.86$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	-6.4wins	-0.16per pick	37cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x980d…985fbacked UCLA	28c	89.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	46	28.3%13 W · 33 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked UCLA	28c	71.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed UCLA	29c	60$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8968…f502backed UCLA	29c	51.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0374…99c7backed USC	72c	48.61$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.61	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…04f6backed UCLA	31c	48.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed USC	69c	47$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.51	117	52.1%61 W · 56 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a7…c0debacked USC	74c	40.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8b…c94dbacked UCLA	28c	36.19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4c…6e54backed USC	71c	28.15$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.16	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed USC	72c	19.11$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.33	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UCLA vs. USCthis page
Spread: USC (-20.5)UCLA won
Spread: USC (-21.5)UCLA won
Spread: USC (-22.5)UCLA won
UCLA vs. USC: O/U 58.5Under won
UCLA vs. USC: O/U 60.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UCLA vs. USC

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event