Tennis · resolved market
Tigre 2: Stefan Palosi vs Alvaro Guillen Meza
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef72eabac019477c7b54c0729125c27b24e0489389e54219f54eb35f9694eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alvaro Guillen Mezaof Stefan Palosi, Alvaro Guillen Meza
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stefan Palosi | 0c | 6,411$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Stefan Palosi | 8c | 2,523$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Stefan Palosi | 12c | 1,734$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 67c | 734.45$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.76 | 659 | 59%389 W · 270 L | -31.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Stefan Palosi | 29c | 405$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…6a3abacked Stefan Palosi | 19c | 394.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Stefan Palosi | 25c | 342.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 279.86$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Stefan Palosi | 26c | 269.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Stefan Palosi | 25c | 250.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Stefan Palosi | 8c | 249.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 757 | 48.6%368 W · 389 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 74c | 243.24$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 196 | 53.6%105 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 96 | 69.8%67 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 132.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…1f2abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | -14.3wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 70c | 111.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 71c | 91.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…0628backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 302 | 41.7%126 W · 176 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Stefan Palosi | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 451 | 47.2%213 W · 238 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.