Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Maestrelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef735b2009ab13aaef9e43132eee1032a036eb94cd68e346e2bbf3c1ef313c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maestrelliof Wild, Maestrelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Maestrelli | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Wild | 35c | 563.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Wild | 42c | 462.16$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.11 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wild | 26c | 252.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Maestrelli | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Wild | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Maestrelli | 64c | 179.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Maestrelli | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Maestrelli | 74c | 126.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Maestrelli | 61c | 115.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Maestrelli | 73c | 102.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Maestrelli | 55c | 90.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Wild | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Maestrelli | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Maestrelli | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…8f3fbacked Maestrelli | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wild | 41c | 84.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…81c3backed Maestrelli | 80c | 75.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…383abacked Maestrelli | 58c | 61.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…9ff7backed Maestrelli | 53c | 37.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Maestrelli | 57c | 34.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Maestrelli | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Maestrelli | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.