Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef7735147c7d396765293df289b5ca4129562ed09ca730c9411dbeaf7032c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 6c | 385$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 278.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 37c | 250.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 38c | 217.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 63c | 198.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 60c | 173.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 29c | 153.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 54c | 135.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 57c | 135.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 120.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 113.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 62c | 104$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 66c | 77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 65c | 66.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 80c | 62.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 60.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 52.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 38c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 70c | 49.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 41c | 49.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 54c | 47.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 47.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 47c | 43.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9643…376cbacked No | 33c | 42.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113a…5696backed No | 33c | 40.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 68c | 39.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb222…2241backed No | 34c | 38.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…1fd6backed Yes | 76c | 36.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked Yes | 61c | 36.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d11…8959backed Yes | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…1e2fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…6acebacked Yes | 38c | 33.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 71c | 33.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 59c | 32.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…fac1backed Yes | 69c | 32.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…7bf8backed Yes | 60c | 31.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…3409backed Yes | 60c | 29.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…1a9ebacked Yes | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…1330backed Yes | 60c | 25.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 56c | 21.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 16.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.