Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda3a17d6f838fd28189828aa01a2c6acb8ef2c748db1396ab829b665250d2d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,934$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 24c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 211.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 73c | 199.8$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 173.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 145.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 80c | 137.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9aebbacked No | 64c | 127.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 71c | 125.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 76c | 119.54$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 27c | 112.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 69c | 111.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…1a9ebacked Yes | 44c | 101.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 32c | 100.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 99.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 89.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 89.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 22c | 88.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 57c | 88.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 80.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 34c | 70.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 52c | 62.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 57.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed No | 66c | 53.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 76c | 52.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 41c | 45.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…44d8backed No | 63c | 42.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 41.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223c…6352backed No | 61c | 39.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 37.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…3a27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 75c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…62bbbacked No | 79c | 19.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.