CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Matrix (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group C
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f04f08cf64ce341e9ea0d1819cf09b92bd4f10052b9e96119a10f8b30298a24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, Matrix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,765 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x861f…a189backed ASTRAL | 75c | 5,025$3,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.38 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…abc5backed ASTRAL | 73c | 4,384$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.01 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Matrix | 26c | 1,519$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.78 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Matrix | 27c | 1,500$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.89 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd494…253bbacked Matrix | 25c | 1,477$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…eb7ebacked Matrix | 23c | 1,445$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…6b8fbacked Matrix | 23c | 1,434$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Matrix | 1c | 1,390$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60da…dcb0backed Matrix | 25c | 1,078$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Matrix | 23c | 959.93$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 220 | 45.5%100 W · 120 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Matrix | 25c | 938.8$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.06 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Matrix | 25c | 887.99$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Matrix | 30c | 880$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.55 | 330 | 44.5%147 W · 183 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…0054backed ASTRAL | 77c | 638$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…569ebacked ASTRAL | 77c | 596$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bde…d8babacked ASTRAL | 75c | 564$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed Matrix | 26c | 548.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Matrix | 26c | 480.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…8ec9backed ASTRAL | 75c | 476$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd1…8cbabacked ASTRAL | 75c | 446$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…2757backed ASTRAL | 75c | 437$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888a…5b99backed ASTRAL | 77c | 419$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…0668backed ASTRAL | 77c | 418$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Matrix | 25c | 410.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff8…ee58backed ASTRAL | 77c | 405$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…4dc7backed ASTRAL | 77c | 402$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Matrix | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Matrix | 24c | 370.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…b489backed ASTRAL | 75c | 355$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Matrix | 25c | 354.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…520abacked ASTRAL | 74c | 346.72$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ASTRAL | 77c | 322.2$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ASTRAL | 74c | 306.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…a807backed ASTRAL | 75c | 277$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed ASTRAL | 77c | 258.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Matrix | 28c | 247.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Matrix | 26c | 200.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…c57fbacked ASTRAL | 74c | 186.18$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked ASTRAL | 75c | 168.8$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Matrix | 37c | 145.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed ASTRAL | 73c | 139$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Matrix | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Matrix | 24c | 129.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 387 | 39.5%153 W · 234 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Matrix | 26c | 107.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Matrix | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 246 | 33.3%82 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Matrix | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Matrix | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Matrix | 26c | 90.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Matrix | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed ASTRAL | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked Matrix | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Matrix | 30c | 59.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Matrix | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Matrix | 25c | 53.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 217 | 52.5%114 W · 103 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed ASTRAL | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Matrix | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -13.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed ASTRAL | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Matrix | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Matrix | 27c | 38.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 163 | 38.7%63 W · 100 L | -13.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked ASTRAL | 61c | 32.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked ASTRAL | 75c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…dc22backed ASTRAL | 64c | 25.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed ASTRAL | 71c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked ASTRAL | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed ASTRAL | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed ASTRAL | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.