CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ARCRED - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f5a78fe4b6cae7c407521292ffdb525ee5a1c77a61efc0a961ebe36e2b8c960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof Eternal Fire, ARCRED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Eternal Fire | 7c | 1,192$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed ARCRED | 47c | 434.36$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.48 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Eternal Fire | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7159…7cfcbacked ARCRED | 80c | 352.2$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Eternal Fire | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 6.5%5 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Eternal Fire | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…63eabacked ARCRED | 59c | 185$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Eternal Fire | 47c | 176$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed ARCRED | 62c | 175$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked ARCRED | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed Eternal Fire | 48c | 63.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 136 | 75%102 W · 34 L | +22.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…843abacked Eternal Fire | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa54e…4775backed ARCRED | 55c | 35.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ARCRED | 52c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ARCRED - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ARCRED (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #13 Play-InARCRED won
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ARCRED - Map 1 WinnerARCRED won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.