Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Arthur Cazaux vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fb2c76882e10e614651f915e6c050bfd0524a8d6e3c6110f1bc6f8c39b84163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lennard Struffof Cazaux, Lennard Struff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Lennard Struff | 62c | 4,329$2,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.22 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Cazaux | 33c | 2,773$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lennard Struff | 54c | 1,355$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.95 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Lennard Struff | 36c | 700$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Cazaux | 63c | 507.94$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Cazaux | 64c | 487.52$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.01 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Cazaux | 70c | 443.53$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.57 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Lennard Struff | 32c | 313.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.5 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Cazaux | 54c | 305$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lennard Struff | 33c | 301.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.47 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Cazaux | 42c | 290$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Cazaux | 41c | 282.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lennard Struff | 63c | 258.72$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Cazaux | 38c | 185.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Cazaux | 42c | 180.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Lennard Struff | 70c | 157.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Cazaux | 21c | 149.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Cazaux | 32c | 139.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cazaux | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Cazaux | 42c | 123.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Cazaux | 30c | 118.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Cazaux | 53c | 107.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Cazaux | 55c | 104.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Cazaux | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Cazaux | 63c | 54.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Lennard Struff | 40c | 53.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cazaux | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Cazaux | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…4a52backed Cazaux | 67c | 29.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Lennard Struff | 77c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.