South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Nacional Potosí vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102744c91d8d869c79cfa01261e1dcc1a2264ee986e51eb48793166f8337eb67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 29c | 3,000$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.23 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed No | 71c | 904.23$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 721.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 71c | 560$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 495.19$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 169.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 73c | 135.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee70…7e8abacked No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 109.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 72c | 104$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…4afdbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…3ebfbacked No | 72c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed No | 71c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 71c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 71c | 70.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 27c | 50.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732c…0274backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 28c | 44.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…824fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 69c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Nacional Potosí vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-02-18?No won
- Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-02-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.