Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Lesa Men: Samuele Seghetti vs Lorenzo Rottoli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x104f25f9c95be2d7d96bd7e9d8d10bb6ec314ea0741f1fe718e0f623a0c71718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samuele Seghettiof Samuele Seghetti, Lorenzo Rottoli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Lorenzo Rottoli | 72c | 1,163$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Samuele Seghetti | 79c | 647.43$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.96 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Samuele Seghetti | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lorenzo Rottoli | 41c | 546.06$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.62 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Samuele Seghetti | 27c | 450$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Samuele Seghetti | 27c | 374.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.54 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lorenzo Rottoli | 29c | 346.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…30bcbacked Lorenzo Rottoli | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed Lorenzo Rottoli | 73c | 110.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…c618backed Lorenzo Rottoli | 73c | 81.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 128 | 60.2%77 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Samuele Seghetti | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Samuele Seghetti | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…9980backed Lorenzo Rottoli | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 221 | 43.9%97 W · 124 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Lorenzo Rottoli | 72c | 25.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0a41backed Lorenzo Rottoli | 70c | 19.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M25 Lesa Men: Samuele Seghetti vs Lorenzo Rottolithis page
- ITF M25 Lesa Men: Completed Match: Samuele Seghetti vs Lorenzo RottoliYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.