Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.70 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10e706e9f242b25874e488f8fdf42b5d1a245ee396e9c293c7c7b00f348d8a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 6cpaid | +1,024.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 54c | 3,055$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.85 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 47c | 2,219$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.08 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 74c | 840.35$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.31 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 14c | 646.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 624.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed Yes | 72c | 621.42$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.08 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +956.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…f36fbacked Yes | 8c | 192.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7849backed Yes | 9c | 158.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +478.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0950…4b03backed No | 71c | 56.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…7d66backed No | 34c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…d51dbacked Yes | 36c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bc…1b9ebacked No | 68c | 33.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 71c | 28.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdc…f084backed No | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd4…ed3fbacked No | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…9e4ebacked No | 69c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…d0eabacked No | 69c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.70 August 17-23?this page
- Will XRP reach $1.10 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.20 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.30 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.40 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.50 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.