Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10fb2b9d525159f5d8cb0a39a0793bcce1484368cd86b327667c88a01ce7817f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leheckaof Lehecka, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x698b…4426backed Lehecka | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x446f…b09fbacked Michelsen | 55c | 1,946$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161b…acc2backed Lehecka | 48c | 572.41$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Michelsen | 50c | 430.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Lehecka | 47c | 415.6$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.97 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michelsen | 52c | 388.43$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.98 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Michelsen | 56c | 359.7$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.43 | 247 | 47.4%117 W · 130 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Lehecka | 49c | 313.82$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…9aacbacked Michelsen | 53c | 276.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Michelsen | 52c | 252.26$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.28 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Michelsen | 55c | 142.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Lehecka | 48c | 129.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Lehecka | 50c | 102.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…0e56backed Lehecka | 50c | 97.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 283 | 50.5%143 W · 140 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Lehecka | 44c | 73.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Lehecka | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Michelsen | 51c | 59.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Michelsen | 51c | 40.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Lehecka | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Michelsen | 54c | 26.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)this page
- Jiri Lehecka vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Lehecka vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Lehecka vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alex MichelsenJiri Lehecka won
- Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs MichelsenLehecka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.