Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11443c8180e156225e88abd954dbcdca6bb839f295613cbf552f74482b194821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas State Red Wolvesof Arkansas State Red Wolves, Southern Miss Golden Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 10c | 946.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 709$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.27 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 48c | 699.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.56 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 46c | 554.01$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.62 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 41c | 370$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 131 | 41.2%54 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 39c | 288.73$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 63c | 268.91$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 44c | 227.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 54c | 162.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 54c | 116$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 92.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 39c | 64.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 61c | 57.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 42c | 36.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 36.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eaglesthis page
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1.5)Arkansas State Red Wolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.