Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Ryan Peniston
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x114e3f55a3d62eff3b51e4485d0a0c041740a6b659807f01c25c3a3674076ff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Burruchagaof Burruchaga, Peniston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Peniston | 1c | 3,865$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Peniston | 19c | 812.28$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Burruchaga | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Peniston | 38c | 331.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Peniston | 35c | 314.02$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Peniston | 18c | 297.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Burruchaga | 65c | 240$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Burruchaga | 61c | 159.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Peniston | 39c | 119.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Burruchaga | 65c | 104.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Peniston | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…0fb5backed Burruchaga | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Burruchaga | 69c | 73.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Burruchaga | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Peniston | 37c | 67.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…68edbacked Peniston | 22c | 66.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Burruchaga | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Peniston | 36c | 51.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Peniston | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Burruchaga | 61c | 39.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Peniston | 39c | 38.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…f88fbacked Burruchaga | 77c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Burruchaga | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Burruchaga | 61c | 21.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.