Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Lamar vs. Northwestern State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1169203559c27fcf866517a36ee0afb13ceda948a62aaee4908e55c7598ac5a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lamarof Lamar, Northwestern State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Northwestern State | 48c | 1,086$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.5 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…d6a9backed Northwestern State | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7338backed Lamar | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lamar | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f6…2478backed Lamar | 50c | 166$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lamar | 50c | 156.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe374…3365backed Northwestern State | 50c | 148$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked Northwestern State | 50c | 144$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Northwestern State | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c29…332abacked Lamar | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…35d1backed Lamar | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd631…0870backed Lamar | 49c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Lamar | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Northwestern State | 48c | 35.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…7631backed Northwestern State | 53c | 32.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…7007backed Northwestern State | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…c3c8backed Lamar | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c3…eab7backed Northwestern State | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Northwestern State | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…1dbfbacked Northwestern State | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked Northwestern State | 52c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd7…d2eebacked Lamar | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.