Golf · resolved market

Will Sepp Straka be the first round leader at the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116e7fdeb5c3c02aedf589e6f67d09617e0cd230e00d128fc1678feda9c3c828

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,197 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2485…7f7dbacked Yes	50c	1,868$934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$934.24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	69	58%40 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	70	62.9%44 W · 26 L	+4.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No	50c	241.73$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.87	40	65%26 W · 14 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed No	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed No	50c	191.34$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.67	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked No	50c	185.57$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.79	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x523c…5348backed No	50c	168.04$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.02	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed No	50c	148.69$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.35	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed No	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sepp Straka be the first round leader at the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event