Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c75e2853fc1e736155a7ff31c0fc67e2b1c9f66f6ca7b85f6f3babc4a60401
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 1c | 12,414$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 0c | 9,415$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 0c | 5,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 1c | 4,013$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…754ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc129…feacbacked Yes | 2c | 1,089$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 701.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 162.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 155.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 29c | 113.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 23c | 100.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 37c | 94.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 22c | 71.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 71.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…7e67backed Yes | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 35c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 55c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 48.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 54c | 38.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 54c | 38.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 46c | 31.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 35c | 31.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 31.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 47c | 27.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 25.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc63e…7d18backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1a…888bbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 73c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.