Tennis · resolved market
ITF Galati: Sara Victoria Balan vs Chiara Fornasieri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11da8f1296757c547fe0a68f44f736e056f5ff8e7166e0f89836679df4329968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiara Fornasieriof Sara Victoria Balan, Chiara Fornasieri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chiara Fornasieri | 48c | 841.25$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.25 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Sara Victoria Balan | 57c | 695.79$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sara Victoria Balan | 38c | 687.02$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.52 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sara Victoria Balan | 31c | 502.17$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Chiara Fornasieri | 42c | 439.95$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.17 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sara Victoria Balan | 42c | 415.71$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Chiara Fornasieri | 43c | 325.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.58 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sara Victoria Balan | 14c | 304.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Chiara Fornasieri | 60c | 297.2$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 464 | 35.3%164 W · 300 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sara Victoria Balan | 37c | 151.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Sara Victoria Balan | 51c | 138.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…8803backed Chiara Fornasieri | 62c | 117.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Sara Victoria Balan | 58c | 99.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 415 | 44.3%184 W · 231 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092a…8577backed Sara Victoria Balan | 32c | 94.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chiara Fornasieri | 48c | 94.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a39…693cbacked Sara Victoria Balan | 64c | 77.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Sara Victoria Balan | 50c | 65.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Chiara Fornasieri | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Chiara Fornasieri | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Chiara Fornasieri | 71c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Sara Victoria Balan | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 275 | 56%154 W · 121 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Sara Victoria Balan | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Galati: Sara Victoria Balan vs Chiara Fornasierithis page
- Set 1 Winner: Balan vs FornasieriFornasieri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.