Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Momoko Kobori vs Ajla Tomljanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x121c5887da6a0a9d29622548ccdf4c3aeeecbbdb3eee7d9d74eaa33edb4fe345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tomljanovicof Kobori, Tomljanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kobori | 9c | 3,289$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.27 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Kobori | 2c | 2,861$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Kobori | 10c | 1,399$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Kobori | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea59…0654backed Kobori | 12c | 938$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2c15backed Kobori | 11c | 930.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Kobori | 10c | 728.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Kobori | 17c | 585.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kobori | 7c | 449.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Kobori | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Kobori | 10c | 233$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kobori | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Kobori | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…5f92backed Kobori | 11c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3813…a81fbacked Kobori | 9c | 106.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Kobori | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 309 | 31.1%96 W · 213 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e49abacked Kobori | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Kobori | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.