Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x125845d82d753e59c2648e79ebe8d779de23f404e31c82b00a5c7ebe8045f7f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 33c | 172.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 22c | 143.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 38c | 43.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 69c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on May 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on May 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May 24?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.