Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1266de7aa2a6208fa71a6cfe551a03674aa5c8d956256eee0eb89f4d37c77245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,462 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 3c | 1,708$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.6 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.79 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 851.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 649.73$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 520.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.14 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 510$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 13c | 434.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.38 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 429.96$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a6…a36cbacked Yes | 6c | 402.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +228.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 3c | 373.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.26 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 4c | 366.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.95 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 349.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4886…b799backed Yes | 8c | 317.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 299.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.24 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 296.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 14c | 225.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.22 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 14c | 157.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.76 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 7c | 156.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.89 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 79c | 145.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 14c | 127.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 112.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 92.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 54c | 74.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked No | 25c | 58.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 42.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…3d55backed No | 28c | 40.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 73c | 40.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 13.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.