Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x841f63f2a762794fe9dd1353df27b4123840b22de7852b60735a8eb3ad7dc4d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,117 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b79…0044backed Yes | 29c | 2,630$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…0a94backed Yes | 29c | 2,585$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…56d7backed No | 54c | 1,940$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…8654backed Yes | 46c | 1,940$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2504…acd3backed No | 56c | 1,880$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x837f…571abacked Yes | 44c | 1,880$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ba…b8e3backed No | 62c | 1,680$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…0532backed Yes | 38c | 1,680$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 31c | 1,367$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.45 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…cd22backed No | 71c | 1,324$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…869ebacked No | 71c | 1,321$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…3bcdbacked No | 71c | 1,309$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…6904backed No | 71c | 1,261$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 4c | 573.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 23c | 544.01$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 427.39$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.94 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 357.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 334$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 324.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 323$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 23c | 312.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 36c | 295.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 255.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 244.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 206.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 10c | 188.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 59c | 175.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…e288backed Yes | 27c | 170$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 78c | 167.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 158$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 41c | 150.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 66c | 149.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 52c | 140.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 15c | 128.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…aa06backed Yes | 35c | 118.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 115.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…69febacked No | 55c | 107.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…0abbbacked Yes | 53c | 106.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 12c | 104.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 15c | 102.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cec…50bbbacked No | 50c | 98.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…ed67backed Yes | 48c | 92.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 75c | 92.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 50c | 92.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 52c | 87.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 80.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 78.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 56.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked No | 76c | 49.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 46.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 44.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed No | 64c | 42.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdc…2d70backed Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4886…b799backed Yes | 32c | 34.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 35c | 31.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa978…67bfbacked No | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…75abbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d53…9298backed No | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…23eebacked No | 61c | 22.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…18bcbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 58c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.