Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12969d08ac460a805802779c118e3b3e7e20709f813f32c8bc5575a3a105ec9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AJ Auxerreof AJ Auxerre, FC Metz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Metz | 77c | 4,280$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290.02 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AJ Auxerre | 23c | 3,050$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.87 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed AJ Auxerre | 22c | 987.36$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.41 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed AJ Auxerre | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed FC Metz | 78c | 372.98$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.03 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AJ Auxerre | 22c | 169.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.07 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed FC Metz | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed AJ Auxerre | 24c | 123$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC Metz | 65c | 88.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked AJ Auxerre | 25c | 74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked FC Metz | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked FC Metz | 79c | 24.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked FC Metz | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed FC Metz | 78c | 13.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.