Ligue 1 · resolved market
AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea18ac9fe75438d3a8a57c3add6d79a809137229aef76acb285c1116bd770d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 37,061$18,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,991.84 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 19,057$9,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,719.14 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…0c2ebacked Under | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 53c | 3,956$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 3,677$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.27 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 52c | 2,440$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 2,038$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.19 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Over | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 53c | 1,203$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.36 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 52c | 1,143$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 51c | 473.37$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 55c | 226.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 64c | 114$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 51c | 109.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…9f0ebacked Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 51.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Over | 49c | 44.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 35.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 51c | 33.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5c71backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…f878backed Under | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…4871backed Under | 53c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…9827backed Over | 48c | 21.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.