NHL · resolved market
AHL: Rochester Americans vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12cab80b917f4959b3d504580d14a989d56690fa77223ae05d754ad2f819a3c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Rochester Americans, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Rochester Americans | 51c | 4,000$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.41 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 2,002$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Marlies | 49c | 838.5$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.84 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Toronto Marlies | 49c | 791.84$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.84 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Rochester Americans | 50c | 364.63$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.8 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Marlies | 49c | 245$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 156.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Rochester Americans | 51c | 156$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 102.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Toronto Marlies | 49c | 98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Toronto Marlies | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 40.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Rochester Americans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.