College Football · resolved market
Spread: Florida State (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12d51347eb4719240d353d6d348eb7f05fcdf70d4b0f790ea64dcfcb434fc913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stanfordof Florida State, Stanford
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Stanford | 50c | 13,891$6,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,905.77 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Stanford | 51c | 12,147$6,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,975.83 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Florida State | 49c | 9,126$4,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,471.76 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Florida State | 51c | 7,667$3,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,894.16 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Florida State | 49c | 5,923$2,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,890.8 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Florida State | 49c | 3,415$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.35 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida State | 49c | 1,175$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.61 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Florida State | 50c | 1,000$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Florida State | 50c | 530$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Florida State | 37c | 506$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.22 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Stanford | 52c | 423.08$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Florida State | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Florida State | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Florida State | 49c | 110.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Florida State | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Florida State | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Florida State | 49c | 43.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Florida State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca8…9553backed Stanford | 51c | 32.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Stanford | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida State (-17.5)this page
- Florida State vs. StanfordStanford won
- Florida State vs. Stanford: O/U 54.5Under won
- O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Florida State (-18.5)Stanford won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.