Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rogaska Slatina: Kaja Najzer vs Lavinia Luciano
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1305d30c09b8d4f2036df9ea4d6c8df25824354cffd7e7c7033d537da56bba01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lavinia Lucianoof Kaja Najzer, Lavinia Luciano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Lavinia Luciano | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kaja Najzer | 48c | 801.13$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.34 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lavinia Luciano | 61c | 469.03$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.38 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Kaja Najzer | 38c | 299.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Kaja Najzer | 30c | 262.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kaja Najzer | 36c | 257.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Lavinia Luciano | 70c | 216.77$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Lavinia Luciano | 47c | 150.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…709dbacked Kaja Najzer | 38c | 131.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Lavinia Luciano | 63c | 97.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Lavinia Luciano | 45c | 92.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Lavinia Luciano | 64c | 81.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Kaja Najzer | 28c | 78.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Kaja Najzer | 58c | 73.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Kaja Najzer | 52c | 63.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lavinia Luciano | 69c | 62.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…b378backed Lavinia Luciano | 64c | 57.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Kaja Najzer | 37c | 57.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Kaja Najzer | 42c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fb…511cbacked Lavinia Luciano | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Kaja Najzer | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…31f4backed Lavinia Luciano | 64c | 35.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Lavinia Luciano | 70c | 33.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lavinia Luciano | 53c | 30.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…209dbacked Kaja Najzer | 49c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lavinia Luciano | 54c | 25.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Lavinia Luciano | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Lavinia Luciano | 64c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.