MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135f819629a29a0df1030bd1605b04d3e5a071f3a0ed7c42ce2433cc239ca360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,747 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,515$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.95 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 11c | 1,089$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 799.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 687.88$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.33 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 541$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.55 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 539.7$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.83 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 404.82$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.43 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 342.43$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 270.93$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 209.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.91 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 144.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 76.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 56.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 50.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 45.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 40.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 34.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 30.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.