Tennis · resolved market
Dallas Open, Qualification: Rafael Jodar vs Mitchell Krueger
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x139b953a5fa3f4d98dc1fbce7e86d8858e8210797225f6dcfaf3905f0679f8d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Jodar, Krueger
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Krueger | 3c | 6,952$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.85 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Krueger | 7c | 1,214$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Krueger | 23c | 1,077$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.34 | 394 | 31%122 W · 272 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jodar | 77c | 991$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.93 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Krueger | 19c | 459.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Jodar | 78c | 429$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…fab1backed Krueger | 23c | 399.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Krueger | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Krueger | 26c | 199.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Krueger | 20c | 169$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Krueger | 21c | 127.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600f…a8aabacked Jodar | 79c | 116.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Krueger | 21c | 114$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Jodar | 74c | 86.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Krueger | 15c | 79.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Krueger | 16c | 73.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Jodar | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Jodar | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Jodar | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Jodar | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jodar | 77c | 39.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Jodar | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…d33fbacked Jodar | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Jodar | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Jodar | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Jodar | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dallas Open, Qualification: Rafael Jodar vs Mitchell Kruegerthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs KruegerJodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.