Champions League · resolved market
Will Mamelodi Sundowns beat Borussia Dortmund?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13b1a0811217f898768abb27be70b058110548901fd6f0e1e5f773af6b66c747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 13c | 12,306$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.74 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 11c | 8,421$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.28 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 1c | 6,528$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 2c | 5,800$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 13c | 3,717$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.26 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 10c | 1,979$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 11c | 1,294$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,048$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…e313backed Yes | 9c | 650$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 12c | 561.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 17c | 226.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Yes | 14c | 215$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 13c | 149.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 7c | 147.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb49…43febacked No | 72c | 139.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 16c | 124.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Yes | 11c | 99.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…35f5backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 76c | 64.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…80ccbacked Yes | 29c | 51.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 79c | 33.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mamelodi Sundowns beat Borussia Dortmund?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund beat Mamelodi Sundowns?Yes won
- Will Mamelodi Sundowns vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.