La Liga · resolved market
SD Eibar vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14693327f242a48c9db4899c885bd3f0eb2918ea003e2a0631acaed168679dab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 1,679$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.02 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Under | 39c | 1,047$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 19c | 484.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 615 | 57.7%355 W · 260 L | +41.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 321.14$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.14 | 828 | 44.8%371 W · 457 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 315.11$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.61 | 2,339 | 48.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 50c | 310.4$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 47c | 256.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 41c | 238.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 228.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 53c | 166.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 26c | 147.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 137.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 12c | 90.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…b159backed Under | 54c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 52c | 76.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 53c | 64.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…33f1backed Over | 50c | 64.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 41c | 54.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Over | 61c | 49.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 50c | 40.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,559 | 51.6%804 W · 755 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 28.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SD Eibar vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5this page
- SD Eibar vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SD Eibar vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SD Eibar vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SD Eibar (-1.5)SD Eibar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.