Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or higher on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x146a4bd517f3548159bf0674852e83b4201b00d51c8c59dd523700309c70c795
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 655.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 75c | 291.48$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 73c | 279.46$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 72c | 268.58$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 136.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 131$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 25c | 123.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 77c | 119.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 68c | 111.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 30c | 97.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 75c | 90.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 70c | 84.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 30c | 84.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 79c | 84.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 81.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 30c | 79.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…08a8backed Yes | 71c | 76.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…9813backed Yes | 60c | 74.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 22c | 73.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 76c | 66.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…3c9cbacked Yes | 73c | 63.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 61c | 48.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 41c | 47.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked Yes | 72c | 46.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 27c | 46.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…d00bbacked Yes | 73c | 40.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Yes | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 78c | 38.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 75c | 31.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…9996backed Yes | 75c | 30.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…d99ebacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 58c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 72c | 27.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b1…33eabacked Yes | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 78c | 17.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 75c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 75c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27a6…a36cbacked Yes | 73c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +228.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…e7acbacked Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or higher on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.