Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x149362251719635c3690fd4e454c523be17b59037ff2783e0b2f2e4d88da9aef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1797…080abacked No | 0c | 16,723$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 585$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…222bbacked Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 12cpaid | +473.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 158.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 12c | 143.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 128.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 14c | 124.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 11c | 113.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 37c | 108.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 15c | 96.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 84.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 31c | 68.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 63.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked Yes | 65c | 61.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 28c | 61.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 56.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 71c | 55.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 26c | 49.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 78c | 48.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 46.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 61c | 36.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…71bdbacked No | 80c | 33.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 27.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 23.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…b84fbacked Yes | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.