La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c7e238c568c1e50955f338132d2a30a4aa6fe567f204fca707d8b40d281f58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,878 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 2,092$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.78 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 24c | 1,249$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.1 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 76c | 628.91$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 201 | 59.2%119 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 78c | 109.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 78c | 103.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 22c | 60.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 413 | 48.7%201 W · 212 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 77c | 51.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked No | 77c | 47.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 78c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 75c | 18.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.