Bundesliga · resolved market
Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15010360fc7a7ca0e06652f5779ddf85f6f933cfd08c3bd6320d19d8c0d27953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 11,260$4,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,402.05 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 57c | 11,105$6,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,330.01 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 42c | 4,348$1,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.13 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 58c | 4,000$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 1,700$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 1,513$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.63 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 784.17$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.98 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 57c | 654.96$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.33 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 58c | 631$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.98 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Under | 44c | 537.91$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 56c | 531.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Over | 55c | 445.67$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.12 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 43c | 443.98$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.07 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 443$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 231.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Over | 50c | 210.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…9b63backed Over | 57c | 179.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b6…ebb8backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Over | 58c | 176.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 58c | 172.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Over | 42c | 135$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998c…f0babacked Over | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 47c | 117.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 48c | 112.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 57c | 87.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Over | 53c | 78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 60.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 58c | 58.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Under | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb79e…47ebbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 45.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef4…c7b1backed Under | 49c | 40.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 60c | 39.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…5407backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 57c | 30.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…583abacked Under | 48c | 28.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…b206backed Over | 52c | 25.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…2a1fbacked Over | 52c | 24.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…ee8dbacked Under | 48c | 21.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.