TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

San Jose State Spartans vs. Air Force Falcons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Jose State Spartansof San Jose State Spartans, Air Force Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,268 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Air Force Falcons28c3,815$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.7412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Jose State Spartans72c3,392$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.752,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Jose State Spartans73c1,907$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.952,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Air Force Falcons30c1,720$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.471,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked San Jose State Spartans74c1,621$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.5611252.7%59 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Air Force Falcons26c1,490$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.3732751.7%169 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Air Force Falcons29c1,191$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.5210846.3%50 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed San Jose State Spartans64c1,049$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.242,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed San Jose State Spartans70c574.62$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.3293247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed San Jose State Spartans72c562.32$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.711,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Air Force Falcons47c533.68$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.142,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Air Force Falcons34c499.29$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.42,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Jose State Spartans69c397.25$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.463,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Air Force Falcons27c395.26$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7281528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Air Force Falcons27c297.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4482048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Jose State Spartans73c284.75$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5577142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Air Force Falcons9c253.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.013,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Air Force Falcons23c216.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6953635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Air Force Falcons27c199.37$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.831,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Air Force Falcons27c198.62$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.635,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked San Jose State Spartans69c176.56$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.651,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed San Jose State Spartans73c163.87$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.851,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Air Force Falcons28c127.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7536535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb02…0f88backed San Jose State Spartans64c119.03$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.858641.9%36 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Air Force Falcons27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2755532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed Air Force Falcons27c99.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.815350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2537…bff9backed Air Force Falcons27c99.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8144452.7%234 W · 210 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba6a…1985backed Air Force Falcons27c84.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.94195.3%1 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick29cpaid-87.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Air Force Falcons29c78.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.024,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Air Force Falcons28c66.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed Air Force Falcons26c66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.949157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Air Force Falcons22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Air Force Falcons26c59.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.751,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff4…743dbacked San Jose State Spartans64c59.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4614451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Air Force Falcons30c53.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.111,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed San Jose State Spartans73c49.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4185248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed San Jose State Spartans73c49.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4152353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Air Force Falcons27c43.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.861244.9%275 W · 337 L+1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Air Force Falcons32c41.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3830945.6%141 W · 168 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked San Jose State Spartans68c34.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1135650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…2e74backed San Jose State Spartans73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9819860.1%119 W · 79 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked San Jose State Spartans57c24.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.664942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed San Jose State Spartans73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.443053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.