Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San Jose State Spartans vs. Air Force Falcons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153a3d9c3b1db03012c200716bb1e16f12a87e4e256839a9368599c444418d1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Jose State Spartansof San Jose State Spartans, Air Force Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Air Force Falcons | 28c | 3,815$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.74 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Jose State Spartans | 72c | 3,392$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.75 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Jose State Spartans | 73c | 1,907$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.95 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Air Force Falcons | 30c | 1,720$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.47 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked San Jose State Spartans | 74c | 1,621$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.56 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Air Force Falcons | 26c | 1,490$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.37 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed Air Force Falcons | 29c | 1,191$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.52 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed San Jose State Spartans | 64c | 1,049$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.24 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed San Jose State Spartans | 70c | 574.62$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.32 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed San Jose State Spartans | 72c | 562.32$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.71 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Air Force Falcons | 47c | 533.68$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Air Force Falcons | 34c | 499.29$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Jose State Spartans | 69c | 397.25$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Air Force Falcons | 27c | 395.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Air Force Falcons | 27c | 297.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Jose State Spartans | 73c | 284.75$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Air Force Falcons | 9c | 253.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Air Force Falcons | 23c | 216.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Air Force Falcons | 27c | 199.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Air Force Falcons | 27c | 198.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked San Jose State Spartans | 69c | 176.56$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Jose State Spartans | 73c | 163.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Air Force Falcons | 28c | 127.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb02…0f88backed San Jose State Spartans | 64c | 119.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Air Force Falcons | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Air Force Falcons | 27c | 99.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Air Force Falcons | 27c | 99.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…1985backed Air Force Falcons | 27c | 84.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 29cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Air Force Falcons | 29c | 78.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Air Force Falcons | 28c | 66.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Air Force Falcons | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Air Force Falcons | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Air Force Falcons | 26c | 59.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…743dbacked San Jose State Spartans | 64c | 59.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Air Force Falcons | 30c | 53.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed San Jose State Spartans | 73c | 49.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed San Jose State Spartans | 73c | 49.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Air Force Falcons | 27c | 43.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Air Force Falcons | 32c | 41.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 309 | 45.6%141 W · 168 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked San Jose State Spartans | 68c | 34.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…2e74backed San Jose State Spartans | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked San Jose State Spartans | 57c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed San Jose State Spartans | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose State Spartans vs. Air Force Falconsthis page
- San Jose State Spartans vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 141.5Over won
- San Jose State Spartans vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 142.5Over won
- Spread: San Jose State Spartans (-6.5)Air Force Falcons won
- Spread: San Jose State Spartans (-7.5)Air Force Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.