Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15731bc619cf35a44ae3e75220dee4edc65570baf73a3ada3bf40425e77e2645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,083$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.17 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,176$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 20c | 804.12$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…e024backed Yes | 15c | 607.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 573.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 17c | 561.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 313.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…b912backed No | 80c | 288.25$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 248.88$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 211.7$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 7c | 206.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 12c | 171.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 162.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 161.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 18c | 160.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 14c | 153.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 139.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 80c | 130.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 17c | 127.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 109.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 27c | 104.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…dee9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 20c | 98.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 81.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 76c | 78.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 79c | 70.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 59.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 49.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed No | 80c | 47.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 78c | 47.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 79c | 39.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 27.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 78c | 27.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 75c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 66c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 77c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.