Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x828d7bf399101fbc5a32ab1c39c1c2f0ad89064b70f650b43464e5ae7e704d94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 36c | 448.83$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 4c | 282.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 264.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 42c | 261.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked Yes | 20c | 229.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 20c | 227.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 44c | 220.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 51c | 197.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 33c | 166.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 68c | 162.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 29c | 148.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 137.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Yes | 35c | 124.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 121.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 116.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 107.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 99.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…dee9backed Yes | 40c | 99.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 97.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 96.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 57c | 93.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 89.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 50c | 86.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 45c | 85.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 80.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 64c | 75.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 66c | 74.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 73.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 59c | 72.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 68c | 70.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 47c | 60.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 48c | 57.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 44c | 57.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 54.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 38c | 46.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 40c | 45.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…3604backed Yes | 37c | 45.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 23c | 44.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Yes | 39c | 42.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 39.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 39.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 66c | 39.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 39.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 37c | 35.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 34.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 65c | 33.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…37cabacked No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 38c | 28.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed No | 60c | 23.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 74c | 21.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 55c | 20.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 60c | 19.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 18.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…edfdbacked No | 64c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 65c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.