MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161e938bf3bd6176ef56031826f9e249b060f4895e503620f912592a03ff7326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 47c | 1,612$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 45c | 999.99$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.99 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 55c | 903.69$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.7 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Over | 48c | 550$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 52c | 545.23$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.45 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 54c | 535.04$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.01 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…a2b4backed Under | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…234cbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phillies vs. Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Phillies vs. BrewersPhillies won
- Spread: Brewers (-1.5)Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.