Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x164f65bdba63b31b0fe7b75fed96ea69c9a6aba1d5daf015c3c6e417b85e9ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Under | 49c | 2,000$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,685$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.21 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Under | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 53c | 699.95$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.98 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 19c | 645.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 65c | 613.41$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 52c | 594.24$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.33 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 417.04$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.79 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Under | 12c | 398.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 29c | 213$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…1af0backed Over | 57c | 202.61$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…6fd3backed Over | 59c | 202.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 40c | 200$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d8…6052backed Under | 12c | 182.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 180.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 50c | 114.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 86.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 44c | 59.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 53c | 48.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd367…9010backed Under | 35c | 41.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed Over | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 53c | 35.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 27.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Over | 73c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…ed4ebacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.