Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d44aadd9eb8407c8522dbc6a4aa869997ffd0a4e1aa7473c644a3eaaa818fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 11,463$7,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,976.04 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 25c | 9,896$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,422.81 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 31c | 2,648$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.46 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 59c | 1,458$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.79 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 51c | 750.96$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 633.74$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.06 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 52c | 364.86$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 40c | 291.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 51c | 173.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 136.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 76c | 131$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Over | 38c | 79.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 45.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 74c | 40.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…3232backed Under | 63c | 40.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 78c | 14.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5this page
- Paris FC vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.