Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Essence vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e8a26de6fb070e4a1651de22ec55da0ebd94f18521d367df17e9a2926ed5d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cloud Dawningof Team Essence, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,992 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Essence | 0c | 21,264$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Cloud Dawning | 74c | 1,212$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Team Essence | 27c | 1,041$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.62 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…e56abacked Team Essence | 26c | 930$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…b33cbacked Team Essence | 26c | 891$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Essence | 26c | 799.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Cloud Dawning | 77c | 671.08$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…7bb4backed Cloud Dawning | 74c | 568$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Cloud Dawning | 74c | 541.26$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…c7adbacked Cloud Dawning | 72c | 534.79$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…8eb7backed Team Essence | 12c | 466$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…8458backed Cloud Dawning | 74c | 465$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf7…12e5backed Cloud Dawning | 74c | 426$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…738fbacked Team Essence | 19c | 395$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Team Essence | 26c | 374$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…8720backed Cloud Dawning | 74c | 362$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Essence | 11c | 347.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Essence | 26c | 295.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…0b90backed Team Essence | 28c | 280.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8d…6fe9backed Team Essence | 18c | 241.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabab…8b3ebacked Team Essence | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Team Essence | 25c | 199.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Essence | 12c | 199.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cloud Dawning | 72c | 196.52$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…b2b4backed Cloud Dawning | 72c | 182.86$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Team Essence | 17c | 175$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Team Essence | 11c | 169.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Essence | 22c | 163.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Team Essence | 28c | 142.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Team Essence | 27c | 139.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x921b…9793backed Cloud Dawning | 80c | 127$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Team Essence | 29c | 110.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Team Essence | 12c | 109.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…f709backed Cloud Dawning | 80c | 93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Cloud Dawning | 71c | 74.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Cloud Dawning | 72c | 67.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Cloud Dawning | 72c | 61.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…f901backed Team Essence | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Team Essence | 25c | 47.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…d550backed Cloud Dawning | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Cloud Dawning | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Cloud Dawning | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…e5e8backed Cloud Dawning | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Cloud Dawning | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed Cloud Dawning | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Cloud Dawning | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 WinnerCloud Dawning won
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerCloud Dawning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.