Fifa International · resolved market
Will Italy beat Belgium?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16f58ee2d00e8612c62f98881725cd98019ee59a6c20b7fb904e6b6fea225956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 49c | 7,395$3,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,791.49 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Yes | 51c | 6,715$3,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,396.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 34c | 5,722$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,761.78 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 65c | 4,968$3,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.53 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…1cddbacked Yes | 53c | 1,847$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.09 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -6.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…f75abacked No | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Yes | 51c | 388.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 51c | 296.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…c452backed Yes | 53c | 269.57$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 9c | 233.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed Yes | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 50c | 120.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 79c | 107.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yes | 50c | 100.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…e143backed No | 51c | 99.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…30afbacked Yes | 53c | 93.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…f3f3backed Yes | 54c | 89.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed No | 54c | 60.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 50c | 50.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 49c | 49.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 50c | 42.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…e40dbacked Yes | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…58aabacked No | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bc…3990backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…398abacked Yes | 50c | 35.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…dda2backed No | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy beat Belgium?this page
- Will Belgium beat Italy?No won
- Will the match between Italy and Belgium end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.