Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional win on 2025-10-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x174243ed57e31361f64ffd23014da6ac0dd2a40a4b45739aed15516713d8de73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4dc…e7c1backed Yes | 30c | 1,150$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 47c | 239.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434f…8451backed No | 70c | 230$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…4f75backed No | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…b076backed No | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69d…447dbacked No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b3…5fa4backed No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…f80fbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…a73dbacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 34c | 40.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e2…1026backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional win on 2025-10-26?this page
- Will Estoril Praia vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2025-10-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.