Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Holger Rune
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x174b10f5dd41fa537f7e0804b0d7ba62ba713dcf65aa5e1689f6e09d5d91123d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runeof Medjedovic, Rune
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Medjedovic | 36c | 2,919$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.57 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Rune | 64c | 2,757$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.56 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Medjedovic | 43c | 2,444$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.92 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Rune | 60c | 1,634$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.96 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rune | 61c | 1,286$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.57 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Medjedovic | 42c | 589.29$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Rune | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Rune | 61c | 493.44$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.44 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…8dd9backed Rune | 68c | 477.66$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.85 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Rune | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Medjedovic | 45c | 370$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Rune | 60c | 233.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Rune | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Medjedovic | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rune | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Rune | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Rune | 62c | 160.47$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Rune | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Rune | 58c | 91.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Medjedovic | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Medjedovic | 38c | 56.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…db3dbacked Rune | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Rune | 56c | 30.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.