Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178ff9c65afc1bbc0fc32e491798b04144e714596729b2774141d09af510b6be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Stateof Cincinnati, Iowa State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cincinnati | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Cincinnati | 21c | 614.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.37 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f8…3e9dbacked Cincinnati | 51c | 430$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f5…2a99backed Iowa State | 49c | 281$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…dc74backed Iowa State | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…de5ebacked Cincinnati | 51c | 159$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…eebebacked Iowa State | 49c | 129$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80af…1893backed Cincinnati | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…44ebbacked Iowa State | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c7…5f6ebacked Cincinnati | 17c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…8e47backed Cincinnati | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1a…9f78backed Iowa State | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda06…89d4backed Cincinnati | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a06…b81bbacked Iowa State | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…904cbacked Cincinnati | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…8c22backed Iowa State | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fffebacked Iowa State | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2522…6ee1backed Iowa State | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…94e8backed Cincinnati | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…9dd9backed Cincinnati | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Iowa State | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…98a8backed Cincinnati | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703f…6114backed Cincinnati | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b40…4990backed Cincinnati | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd59…1de3backed Iowa State | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…6817backed Iowa State | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad8d…c837backed Iowa State | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.